Home > All articles  Your advertisement here   The Demographic Profile of Arab Countries, The Aging of Rural Populations ( The rapid demographic transition and, in particular, the fast decline in mortality rates during the latter half of the twentieth century has caused age-structural changes and ageing of populations in many developing countries. The rapid growth of economies in East Asia in recent years, which has resulted in substantial increases of per capita income and reductions of poverty, can be largely attributed to the favourable role played by the age-structural changes of the population in that region. Various studies have revealed that the shift in age structures has had a profound impact on economic growth through savings and investments. Consequently, there is a strong need to examine demographic transitions, age-structural changes and ageing of populations at national and regional levels against the backdrop of planning for the economic development and welfare of the population in general and of the elderly in particular. This issue of The Demographic Profile of Arab Countries highlights the course of fertility and mortality transitions, and examines trends in rural and urban populations in the 22 countries of the Arab region for the period 1980-2050. Additionally, it exposes age-structural changes and ageing of rural populations for the period 1980-2015 in eight selected Arab countries, namely, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, Syrian Arab Republic, Somalia and Yemen. While the process of ageing in the Arab region is comparatively a recent phenomenon, there is evidence to suggest that population ageing in rural areas began considerably sooner in many countries. Within that context, the two most important determinants of ageing of rural populations in developing countries are rural-to-urban migration of the working-age population in search of employment, and urban-to-rural migration of the population aged 65 and over (65+) after retirement from the workforce, both of which accelerate rural ageing. The prevailing discussion is extended on demographic transition, age-structural change and ageing in two ways, namely: (a) spatial variations of the selected eight Arab countries aimed at shedding light on the migration element of age-structural change and at focusing attention on the working-age population with a strong propensity to migrate to urban areas;3 and (b) compositional differences within the age groups of interest, namely, 15-64 and 65+. These two issues are examined in the first two sections of this paper. The final section focuses on the main developmental challenges posed by rural-to-urban migration and rural ageing; and presents conclusions and recommendations, highlighting relevant and sound policies. Data and methodology The revised population estimates of the United Nations given by age and sex from 1980 to 2050 are used to study ageing and to examine fertility and mortality trends in the 22 countries of the Arab region.4 In the absence of a suitable breakdown of rural-urban population groups by age distributions and given the vital need to understand rural-to-urban migration patterns in broad age groups, this investigation attempted to split the available population estimates by rural-urban residence for the selected eight Arab countries under study. Unfortunately, the analysis of age-specific trends of rural/urban populations for rural population projections by age was hampered by limited data on rural-urban residences for these countries at the base period. Consequently, two proxies were used to obtain rural population projections, namely: (a) the trend of total rural population for each of the selected eight countries over a comparatively short period, in other words up to 2015; and (b) the rural population age distribution of each of the selected eight countries projected to 2015, with the assumption of a constant age structure of rural population at the base year (1980) More info, click-here     By KS Date 21-08-2008 Print this news| Send to a friend Your advertisement here